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Carmel Valley CA real estate agents - RSF Team Realty
February 2009 Newsletter
Rathin Neogy
A Team of Real Estate Professionals
Serving Rancho Santa Fe & all of San Diego County
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San Diego home price trends

Sales in San Diego are up but prices are generally down. For details of home prices, please click on the following link

Wall Street news

:

Financials lead advance as investors show optimism about the government's stimulus package and bank bailout plan.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bank and housing shares led a broad rally Friday as optimism about the government's economic stimulus bill and the new version of the bank bailout plan countered unease following the brutal January jobs report.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 217 points, or 2.7%, according to early tallies. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 23 points, or 2.7%.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 45 points, or 2.9% and closed at a one-month high.

"I think we're rallying today in anticipation of the stimulus package," said Len Blum, managing director at Westwood Capital.

If anything, the poor January jobs report - which showed a loss of nearly 600,000 jobs - added to the optimism about the stimulus package, by inciting a sense of urgency in lawmakers and investors.

Blum said that investors were relieved that although the employment report was bad, it wasn't as bad as some had been fearing.

"Yet it's still bad enough that it gives Senate Democrats some ability to push for the legislation to go through quickly," he said. "It puts the heat on Congress to move fast."

The Senate is working Friday to cut down a more than $900 billion package after a different version of the plan, then valued at $819 billion, won party-line approval in the House last week. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. said a vote could happen Friday evening.

Banking shares rallied for the second session as investors looked to Monday's announcement on how the government will use the remaining $350 billion of the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Bank stocks led the advance, including Dow components Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500). Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) jumped 25% after falling to a more than 20-year low Thursday.

Stocks gained Thursday on hopes about the bank bailout plan and better-than-expected monthly sales from Wal-Mart Stores. Throughout the week, investors have taken a measured response to news that has been bad, but not as bad as expected, including reports on manufacturing and housing. That optimism was sustained Friday.

Financials: Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is expected to speak Monday about how the government plans to use the rest of the TARP money.

Plans in discussion include the creation of a so-called "bad bank" that would let the government take bad assets off bank balance sheets which would purportedly get banks to start lending again.

Reports also say the government could temporarily suspend or alter the "mark-to-market" accounting rule, which would mean the government could buy the assets at a price that is below market rate, but not at fire sale prices.

Among the criticisms of the way the Bush administration handled the first half of the TARP is that the Treasury overpaid for the bad assets it bought. Changing the mark-to-market rule might address that particular critique.

Job losses: Employers cut 598,000 jobs in January, as the recession continued to ravage corporate profits and spark massive layoffs. It was the worst month of job losses in 34 years, surpassing the 540,000 job cuts economists were expecting, according to a Briefing.com survey.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 7.6% from 7.2% the previous month, topping forecasts for a rise to 7.5%. The unemployment rate is at its highest since September 1992.

The report also showed that 2.6 million people have been out of work for at least six months, the largest number of long-term unemployed since 1983. (Full story)

"The report makes it clear that we are losing jobs at an alarming pace and we need a stimulus package as fast as possible," said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

He said that he does not agree with the stock and bond markets' measured response.

"I'm not as optimistic as the markets are," he said. "I think unemployment will hit 9% by the end of the year and will peak above 9% sometime in the first quarter of 2010."

Bonds:Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.95% from 2.89% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.24%, unchanged from Thursday, according to Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate slipped to 0.31% from 0.32% Thursday. Libor is a bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets rallied and European markets gains in afternoon trading.

The dollar was mixed, falling against the euro and rising against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery fell $1 to settle at $40.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose 10 cents to settle at $914.30 an ounce.

Gasoline prices rose three-tenths of a cent to a national average of $1.91 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card swipes released Friday by motorist group AAA.  To top of page

 

San Diego home prices for December 2008

Wall Street news

Pending home sales

U.S. economic highlights

 

 

 

 

 


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We are located in Rancho Santa Fe.

Rathin: 858.204.3432 Dir.


 

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U.S. economic highlights

The news hasn't been good, and is likely to get a lot worse before it gets any better. This week begins the latest reporting season. Most of the earning reports are likely to be negative — sharply negative in many cases. Meanwhile, the price of a gallon of gas continues to rise. These reports are likely to reinforce the message from this week's economic data. The general picture is one of a very severe recession, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

Monday, January 26

10:00am Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indicators (The Conference Board)

The Coincident Economic Index, which tells us where we are right now, reflects the ongoing recession. The Leading Economic Indicators have shown no sign that the recession is beginning to lose any steam. Was that all still true in December?

Tuesday, January 27

10:00am Consumer Confidence (The Conference Board)

Consumer expectations were very low as the financial turmoil and labor market contraction continued. How did losing one-half million jobs again in December impact consumer attitudes?

Thursday, January 29

8:30am Advance Report on Durable Goods — Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Bureau of the Census)

The declining ordering rate is one measure of how deep this recession is. Orders fell by 6 percent in October and declined again in November, albeit more modestly. There is a chance that the drop in orders in December matched October's intensity. That would imply that there is just no momentum in demand (from consumers, business investment or export markets). In turn, that would signal more steep declines in industrial output and industrial staffing.

Friday, January 30

8:30am Gross Domestic Product (4Q — 2008) (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

The recession reached a very intense level late in 2008, as shown by the sharp back-to-back declines in employment in November and December. This report about GDP will show that the economy contracted at about a 5 percent pace (annualized), marking it as one of the most negative quarterly performances in decades. Moreover, the anticipation is that the contraction may be almost as intense in the first quarter of 2009. This is clearly the worst recession in more than half a century.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK

The global contraction continues and is widening. Russia is the latest economy to slip into recession. Canada is the latest country to entertain the idea of a fiscal stimulus to limit the damage from the global downturn. The latest round of data on the Leading Economic Indicators across the globe show no hint that conditions may begin to ease late this winter or in the spring. The global economy is growing at only about half the pace of two years ago, with global trade slowing even faster. The one positive development is that slower demand is leading to an easing of prices of raw materials. While this may be positive news for developed economies, it is not for some developing economies.

For further information contact:
Kenneth Goldstein
at 1 212 339 0331.
ken.goldstein@conference-board.org



 

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Quote for February:

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